Gary Parrish unveiled his Post-Deadline-To-Withdraw-From-The-NBA-Draft Top 25 (and one) and he has the Heels listed at #4.  I mean they lost four starters from a championship team, and a former POY, so obviously they’re still in the Top 5.

Andy Katz also dropped his rankings post-withdraw deadline and has the Heels at #5, claiming that it still might be too high.

This is how Roy Williams does things these days.  A lot of people are comparing this team to the 2006 team or to last year’s Kansas team, but in a lot of ways I think this team will be better. With Ginyard and Thompson anchoring a group of freshmen and sophomores that is ranked so high, I think over half could end up as NBA first round picks.

People are touting Ed Davis as the reason North Carolina won’t have too many more L’s, but most forget that Tyler Zeller actually beat him out for the starter position at the beginning of the season when Hansbrough was out with an injury. Zeller never really returned to form, and I’m sure he will use this year as a springboard to show why he wasn’t worried about losing a year of elligibility and coming back for the NCAA Tournament.

With both rankings, Kansas, Michigan State seem to be obvious Top 5 choices based on incoming talent, returning talent, coaching situations, and last year’s performance (with Kentucky being a unqiue case everyone seems to be jumping to inane conclusions about).  And with the field wide open, schools like Texas, Villanova, and Purdue will obviously creep into discussions, but despite UNC’s personnel losses it has to be listed up there as a national title competitor yet again. If nothing else, this is a Roy Williams coached team, wearing light blue.

And Duke being ranked in the Top 10 in both lists? Come on.

My view on Tyler Hansbrough has been well stated on this site. Lately, others have been coming to grips with the fact that Psycho T is a legitimate talent with skills to go with his work ethic.

In Chad Ford’s latest Mock Draft, both Tar Heels he has projected in the first round made some moves. Tyler Hansbrough from 20 to 11, and Ty Lawson from 22 to 23.

His analysis for the #11 pick is as follows:

“Analysis: Rod Thorn has said he needs a moose, but it won’t be easy to find one here. The Nets have needs at both forward positions but the three best candidates, DeJuan Blair, Earl Clark and James Johnson, all have issues. Blair’s medical reports have created major red flags about his knees. Johnson is carrying around some baggage from Wake Forest. And Clark isn’t the physical player they’re really looking for.

That has caused two new players to emerge on their list — Tyler Hansbrough and Terrence Williams. Williams has his own set of issues that teams are sorting through which gives Hansbrough a legit shot at going this high. He isn’t going to be a dominant player in the league, but he’s been productive, is as tough as nails and has measured better, in size and athletically, than people predicted.”

Some weeks ago, Ford claimed that Chicago taking Hansbrough at #16 was probably too high, now it seems that it’s becoming acceptable to consider Hansbrough a Top 15 player.  With two recent articles analyzing the impact of the high school Class of 2005 on this 2009 Draft, it seems like there is no reason not to consider Hansbrough in the Top 15, if not Top 10.

If nothing else, this further proves Hansbrough’s grittiness, and the fact that no matter the situation, he’ll do whatever he can to climb to the top. The team that eventually drafts him will enjoy finding this out firsthand.

Tyler Hansbrough is becoming a hot topic at the NBA draft combine. Chad Ford writes in his most recent post on ESPN.com that Hansbrough is the big winner and could see his stock jump into the lottery.

Now I’ve been saying all along that this should be the case, that Tyler measures up with top lottery picks in recent years in stats and measurements, and it’s only now that NBA execs and media members are seeing this. Yet, no one mentions that he’s been overlooked because he’s white. Ford says, “The concern was always about his lack of size and athleticism.” But, how can that be a concern when he’s been playing athletic basketball pretty visibly for four years? Even Hansbrough agrees.

Please see pasted below for the portion of Chad Ford’s article referencing Hansbrough:

For all of you who wrote me all season furious that I didn’t have Tyler Hansbrough in my mock draft lottery … now’s the time to yell, “I told you so!”

I think it’s time to declare Hansbrough the big winner of the 2009 NBA draft combine. Although he was what you would expect him to be in the skills portion of the combine, he came out better than expected in the measurements and strength and agility testing.

Hansbrough measured a legit 6-foot-8¼ in socks and 6-9½ in shoes. He also had a surprising 6-11½ wingspan and a standing reach of 8-10 — one inch better than Blake Griffin.

He basically measured the same size as Kevin Love, Drew Gooden, Paul Millsap and David Lee.

But that’s just half the tale.

His vertical-jump numbers weren’t terrible, either. At 34 inches, he matches up with the combine scores of Emeka Okafor, LaMarcus Aldridge and Nene. And better than Chris Bosh.

His no-step vertical was a little more troubling at just 27½ inches, but that equaled or bettered Carlos Boozer, Aldridge and Charlie Villanueva.

Lateral quickness? His 11.12-second score was stellar for a big man. He bested Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson and Earl Clark from this draft class. And he also was better than Amare Stoudemire, Bosh and Tyrus Thomas.

And his 3.23 three-quarter-court sprint? Another strong score for a big man. His numbers were better than Griffin, Jordan Hill and Michael Beasley.

In fact, if you want a good physical and athletic comparison to Hansbrough, try Beasley, the No. 2 pick in the draft last year. They are within an inch and a few half seconds of each other in virtually every category.

What does all this mean? We already know Hansbrough is a terrific basketball player. There was never a question about what he does on the court. The concern was always about his lack of size and athleticism.

Now that he has physically proved he’s a solid NBA-caliber athlete, will the objections to drafting him in the lottery start to fade?

Some early signs point to yes. I think a number of teams, including the Bucks, Nets and Pacers, will all give Hansbrough a closer look.

“I think we have to re-evaluate him,” one lottery-team GM told me. “You get used to seeing a guy through a certain set of glasses. This forces you to rethink and ask yourself whether you misjudged him. I think if you need a big, you have to consider him.”

The concern now for Hansbrough is to take this momentum and capitalize on it when he gets to the league. The luxury before was that there was no way he could have disappointed as an NBA player because there were no expectations for him, now as the general public builds expectations for him to be a Blake Griffin or Michael Beasley he’s going to need to live up to those expectations. But if there was one thing that I’m sure Hansbrough isn’t worried about,  it’s other peoples’ expectations.

The last time somebody expected Hansbrough to do something, he went and did it.

Jawad Williams was spotted alive and well on the Cleveland Cavaliers bench yesterday holding a clipboard. Why wasn’t he dressed, is he injured? Coaching? Will he get a ring with LeBron? Even if he wears a suit through the playoffs, his ring would be worth as much as Danny Ferry’s ring. (The only Duke player who happened to appear on an NBA Championship team. And yes, he’s no champion — he just happened to be there.)

UPDATE: Check out this profile of Jawad’s D-League and NBA life.

Let’s take a look at his points:

- UNC, dook, and State are in dire need of point guard help.

- All three “lost out” on John Wall when he chose UK.

- The talent Calipari is bringing to UK is imposing for UNC, dook.

- Reviving a dynasty is easier than building one, so the drawing of talent to UK could easily wake up the sleeping Wildcats (and their sleeping beauty, Ashley Judd).

- Not only will this talent help immediately on the court, it alters the recruiting landscape that UK, UNC, and dook share.

- If Wall happens to stay for more than one season, the pain of losing him will be compounded exponentially for UNC, dook.

I should caution that I’m not usually a fan of speculative journalism.  However, there’s plenty of value to be found in “what if” columns, as long as those columns are based on facts we know, not more speculation.  That’s Tudor’s first mistake: he assumes that UNC needs point guard help, that Roy made a concerted effort to recruit Wall and lost, and (essentially) that the recruiting landscape hasn’t changed since 1957 and is still heavily regional.

It’s difficult to argue that dook and State are set at the point- it’s difficult to argue that they’re set anywhere.  The idea that UNC has a hole at point guard is short-sighted.  First, Larry Drew II may not be Ty Lawson, but he’s not Quentin Thomas, either.  As Drew’s minutes grew late in the season, especially when Ty was out nursing his toe, you could almost see lights flickering on with each pass.  An improved, more mature Drew coupled with a healthy Ginyard and wildcard Strickland leaves UNC with a much better point guard situation than in 05-06.  The team did ok that year and could have done better; to lump UNC’s point guard situation with State and dook is absurd.

Repeat after me: UNC did not recruit Wall.  Roy spoke with him a time or two, and what was discussed in those conversations may never be known.  I discussed my take on the situation more in the original post announcing Wall’s decision- there’s probably a reason Roy didn’t try harder.  To insinuate that it was a mistake or a loss to not recruit Wall is ludicrous and completely based on the wrong-headed idea that UNC is hurting at point.

The most puzzling assertion Tudor makes is that losing out on a high school star from the Triangle will hurt with recruiting in future years.  While snagging a homegrown hero is great PR, I have to imagine dook will be the first to tell you it’s overrated (sup Shavlik).  Technology, Caulton, has made recruiting internationally possible.  Last year, our best players were from Missouri, Maryland, Virginia, New York, California, and Pennsylvania.  Next year, our stellar recruiting class hails from California (twice), Florida, Tennessee, and New Jersey.  Would Roy want to get the next Michael Jordan?  Absolutely.  But the country’s filled with talent, and the UNC brand is strong everywhere.  Any school that becomes a recruiting force is a threat, whether in Kentucky or Cali. In that respect, Wall to UK is a blip on the radar, not armageddon.

Could Tudor end up being right?  Sure.  Even a broken clock’s right twice a day (unless, of course, by broken the clock runs slow or fast, meaning that it could be right only once a month or year).  Is Tudor likely to be right?  No.  His speculation is based on speculation and false assumptions.  And even if Wall ends up being a messiah for UK this year, there’s no reason to believe that UNC will be wringing its hands when Kendall Marshall and Reggie Bullock walk on to campus.  For all your idiocy, Roy laughs at you, Caulton.

In Chad Ford’s Mock Draft 1.0, he has Tyler Hansbrough going 20th to the Utah Jazz and Ty Lawson going 22nd to the Dallas Mavericks. At this point, neither Wayne Ellington or Danny Green have broken into the first round yet, but it is still possible for Ellington to jump up based on workouts.

Currently, this is what Ford is saying about both first-round Tar Heels:

“Hansbrough Analysis: It feels like destiny for Hansbrough to end up in Utah. His tough, blue-collar game should work really well for Jazz coach Jerry Sloan. And with the Jazz likely to lose either Carlos Boozer or Paul Millsap, or both, they’ll probably have a need at the 4.”

“Lawson Analysis: Jason Kidd will hit free agency this summer, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be back. J.J. Barea was good in the playoffs, but if Kidd looks to be leaving, the Mavericks will want a more classic point guard such as Lawson. Not only does he have the speed and perimeter shooting they crave, but he’s also a proven winner.”

You know how I feel about Hansbrough’s NBA potential. I also think Lawson will be able to transition to the NBA game very well, despite of (or because of his size). The NBA is a different game now more than ever, and guards like JJ Barea, and Aaron Brooks are making major offensive and defensive impacts on their teams. Overall, this could end being a good thing for fans who want to see Carolina players on a larger stage in the NBA. For the past 5 years, UNC NBA draftees have not been able to break into rosters on winning teams. Utah and Dallas play their young players and manage to remain competitive in the league, making it easier for a player like Josh Howard to improve while still winning, whereas you don’t hear much about Brandan Wright and Rashad McCants on their struggling franchises.

Seems that Wayne and The Elbow are following each other once again.  Can’t say it’s a bad move by Henderson- it’s such a weak draft that scouts are starting to speak highly of Tyler again.  This move further weakens the Poo Devils, despite the annual chorus of “dook’s gonna be really good next year, I swear” echoing from the halls of SI and ESPN.

If you know a dookie, take a minute or two to remind them how much they, their school, and the team they follow suck like Reggie Love in his sleep.  It’s the least you can do.

At least he didn’t choose dook.

The chatter is that Roy’s decision to not actively pursue Wall, despite his wide open status, was an extraordinary vote of confidence in Larry Drew II.  I’m inclined to agree to a certain extent.  However, I’m not so sure that means Roy thinks Drew is the next Lawson or Felton.

Consider this: the last two years we’ve witnessed Roy manage “too much talent” with his teams, and the results speak for themselves (two Final Fours, one set of rings).  Balancing egos and ambitions of immensely talented young stars has become commonplace for Old Roy, so much that he’s perfected it as an art.  Regardless of Drew’s ability, and we’ve reason to believe he’ll be good, uncharacteristically jumping into a pissing contest late in the game to get John Wall could have upset the balance more than just relying on Drew in the first place, even had he landed the bball virtuoso.

None of this is to say that gnashing of teeth isn’t warranted at all.  Any time a top 10 recruit from North Carolina escapes our clutches stings a little.  But wins in May don’t guarantee wins in March- or April.  Roy’s got enough of the former and the latter on this roster to keep Heels fans hopeful for a long time.

As a top high school prospect, Wall is utilizing this recruiting period as his free-agency for whoever wants to sign him to a one-year contract. This year more than any recent year, top prospects remained undecided very late into the recruiting season. Some of that was directly related to the Calipari coaching change, with recruits like Xavier Henry, DeMarcus Cousins, Daniel Orton, and Lance Stephenson reconsidering their situation. For most of these top recruits, a one year stint in college is all they plan to partake in, and they’re looking for a situation that will give them the minutes and national stage to put them in the best position the following June.

With the other prospects all nearly decided, all eyes are waiting on Wall, who some are calling a potential #1 pick in next year’s draft. I wanted to go through Wall’s “list” and try to figure out what he would see as his best fit.

The Long Shots

NC State: Yes, the school is in his home state and close to his family. But, the roster for next year will be majorly depleted. With Fells and McCauley graduating, and Costner declaring for the draft, what would type of options would Wall even be passing to? Sidney Lowe is a solid coach and he hasn’t had a decent point guard since Engin Atsur, but how much he can help Wall is debatable, and all Wall would be doing would be saving Lowe’s job for two more years.

Baylor: This is definitely an odd addition to Wall’s choices and it reeks of influence by his “handlers.” By hiring AAU coach Dwon Clifton, then Wall’s AAU coach, to be their “Director of Player Development,” back in 2008 it seemed that Wall playing at Baylor was a done deal, but though the Cliftons of the world remain well entrenched in Wall’s life, it seems less likely that he would spend his one college year at the less renowned Baylor. Especially when this Big 12 school is not his best chance for a title.

Miami: With Jack McClinton gone the offense opens up a bit, but this addition to the list also seems out of place. Miami would certainly offer the minutes and logo notoriety that a player like Wall would demand, but if were going to play in the ACC then it would seem more likely that he join a power that boosts him to the top. I mean, it’s like choosing Cleveland over New York. (Wait a sec…)

The Throw-Ins

Florida: Question, as a fan, would you rather have back-to-back championships and then miss the NCAA tournament for two years, or two titles in 5 seasons with 3 straight #1 seeds, 4 30+ win seasons, and never missing the tournament once? Sure Billy Donovan might make a great sell, but Florida is still rebuilding, and with Tim Tebow back in town, Wall is most definitely not the #1 BMOC. The uncertainty behind Nick Calathes return would also be a factor.

Memphis: Analysts are talking about Tulsa winning the C-USA, Evans could return and want major minutes, Taggart could not return and the team could be even more depleted than it already is, and then there’s the little thing about Coach Calipari leaving and taking his recruits with him. At this point, there is no reason why Wall would choose Memphis over Kentucky, let alone any other school. Sorry Tigers, it was a nice run, and try not to take this snub too personally. It’s probably the last time you’ll be considered for a while.

The Powerhouses

Kansas: Kansas offers the best chance for a title, but we’re not totally sure that this is what John Wall is coming to college to get. It’s certainly not a degree, but more than a championship, Wall would require minutes and exposure. And while Kansas would certainly provide the latter, with Sherron Collins returning for his senior year, would Bill Self really be able to give Wall starters’ minutes? This is Collins’ team and he’s coming back to try to win a title. Along with Xavier Henry choosing Kansas, this team is already loaded. Do they even have an available scholarship for Wall? And where does Lance Stephenson fit in?

Duke: They are definitely weak at the PG spot between Nolan Smith and Elliot Williams, but now they’ll be weak at the SF spot with Henderson most likely departing. With Henderson, Wall seemed like the perfect fit to go with the other PF/C recruits Coach K is bringing to Durham. But, without Henderson is Wall really the answer? Elliot Williams might be able to slide into the SG role, but he definitely won’t be able to fill Henderson’s shoes to the point that Duke becomes a national title contender. Though the Clifton camp is speaking highly of Coach K and Wall’s interactions with him, does Wall really want to take the same path that Seth Curry has taken? Also, is Coach K willing to knowingly take the one-and-done plunge again? Luol Deng got him to his last Final Four…so yes.

Kentucky: When Calipari was at Memphis, it seemed that this was going to be Wall’s destination. Now that he’s at Kentucky and in need of a PG, it seems reasonable for Wall to make the jump as well. He is frequently compared to Derek Rose, and Calipari took Rose to the final game, which provided the jumping off point to a #1 overall pick in the draft and an NBA ROY trophy. Meeks and Patterson are question marks, but with the incoming recruiting class that includes two of the Top 15 rated prospects, Wall should have options and the Kentucky pedigree offers one of the biggest stages in college sports, plus the added fact that he could be a savior to the winningest program in the NCAAs. It would not be a surprise to anyone for UK to pick up Wall’s one-year contract.

But, while all these choices offer different selling points for Wall, and he will definitely end up at one of them, there is no obvious choice that offers everything he needs…oh wait there is.

The Wild Card

UNC: One of the most storied programs in all of college basketball is coming off a national title fueled mostly by its departing junior/senior classes. Instead of rebuilding though, this school is reloading. They have potentially two Top 10 picks in next year’s draft in Ed Davis and John Henson, the #1 recruiting class in the country and a major vacancy at point guard. The ideal situation for this team would be an elite point guard joining for one year to ease the transition between Lawson and 2011’s top rated recruit. Larry Drew is a serviceable backup and Wall would not be asked to overextend himself, but he will have all the minutes he needs and most definitely a spot on the starting lineup. He would have a chance to help the team go back-to-back and win a title in his one college year, he can play at the school he claims he dreamed of playing at when he was a kid, the school the greatest player in the history of basketball played at, and for a coach, who everyone loves (aside from one certain AAU scumbag) and whose coaching style is a perfect way to bring out all of Wall’s talents.

There is no logical reason why Wall would play anywhere but UNC. But, this is the NCAAs and the seedy world of college basketball recruiting, where logic is the last thing on anyone’s minds.

For Wall’s sake, I hope he makes a choice that his heart is in. He’s going to be a star and I wish him the best wherever he ends up playing…as long as it’s not Duke.

Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington are taking their skills to the League. We wish them well and thank them for three of the most enjoyable years I can remember in UNC basketball.

UNC says the duo will hold a news conference along with coach Roy Williams. Like the similar press conference in 2005 with Sean May, Marvin Williams, and Raymond Felton, most fans know what’s probably coming.

In truth, there are few legitimate reasons for either player to return to school for one more year, unless like Tyler, they just really really want to.

With these decisions nearly out of the way, only one thing remains, would the certain departure of Raymond Felton allow John Wall to finally make a decision and come to North Carolina?

UPDATE: Sports Illustrated is one step ahead of the game. They’re reporting that the two players are NBA-bound, confirming everyone’s beliefs.

4. Ed Davis –
Positives:
# Active big man
# Plays even bigger because of excellent length
# Motor runs very high
# Excellent rebounder on both ends of the floor
# Good shot-blocker
# Effective scorer from about 12 feet and in

Negatives:
# Needs to add strength
# Needs more experience, playing limited minutes right now

22. Ty Lawson
Positives:
# Super-quick point guard
# Good athlete with explosive leaping ability
# Excellent penetrator and finisher around the basket
# Good court vision
# Solid perimeter shooter, though streaky
# Quick defender gets a lot of steals
# Keeps turnovers to a minimum

Negatives:
# Undersized for his position
# So-so free-throw shooter
# Lacks a real midrange game
# Streaky from the perimeter
# Not much of a scorer
# Can he play at more than one speed?

34. Wayne Ellington
Positives:
# Big-time scorer
# Deep NBA 3-point range
# Can shoot off the dribble or on the catch-and-shoot
# Solid athlete

Negatives:
# He’s a little undersized for a 2-guard
# Needs to add strength
# Looks a little one-dimensional right now
# Not a great defender

45. Tyler Hansbrough
Positives:
# A warrior in the paint
# Outworks everyone for rebound and second-chance putbacks
# Strong, physical player who isn’t afraid to do the dirty work
# Does a great job of getting to the line
# Decent free-throw shooter for a big man
# Turning himself into a polished scorer

Negatives:
# Just a so-so athlete
# Undersized for his position
# Has short arms
# Plays beneath the rim
# Struggles to score against long, athletic defenders
# Limited upside

73. Danny Green
Positives:
# All-around player who excels on both ends of the floor
# Offensively very smooth
# Has a nice stroke with growing NBA 3-point range
# He’s a good rebounder for his position
# A potential lockdown defender
# Tough, great basketball IQ

Negatives:
# Just an average athlete
# Not particularly explosive
# Lacks great lateral quickness
# More than a role player in the pros?

Also, just a thought.  John Wall could easily have chosen a school by now.  Maybe he’s waiting to make sure Lawson is going to the NBA, so he’d get playing time on Carolina…?