Once and For Wall

John Wall said that he plans to trim his list of schools to three or four by the end of this week. With the type of attention that this story has been getting, it has to be turning heads of other tops recruits who are looking for ways to get their names out there early.

As a top high school prospect, Wall is utilizing this recruiting period as his free-agency for whoever wants to sign him to a one-year contract. This year more than any recent year, top prospects remained undecided very late into the recruiting season. Some of that was directly related to the Calipari coaching change, with recruits like Xavier Henry, DeMarcus Cousins, Daniel Orton, and Lance Stephenson reconsidering their situation. For most of these top recruits, a one year stint in college is all they plan to partake in, and they’re looking for a situation that will give them the minutes and national stage to put them in the best position the following June.

With the other prospects all nearly decided, all eyes are waiting on Wall, who some are calling a potential #1 pick in next year’s draft. I wanted to go through Wall’s “list” and try to figure out what he would see as his best fit.

The Long Shots

NC State: Yes, the school is in his home state and close to his family. But, the roster for next year will be majorly depleted. With Fells and McCauley graduating, and Costner declaring for the draft, what would type of options would Wall even be passing to? Sidney Lowe is a solid coach and he hasn’t had a decent point guard since Engin Atsur, but how much he can help Wall is debatable, and all Wall would be doing would be saving Lowe’s job for two more years.

Baylor: This is definitely an odd addition to Wall’s choices and it reeks of influence by his “handlers.” By hiring AAU coach Dwon Clifton, then Wall’s AAU coach, to be their “Director of Player Development,” back in 2008 it seemed that Wall playing at Baylor was a done deal, but though the Cliftons of the world remain well entrenched in Wall’s life, it seems less likely that he would spend his one college year at the less renowned Baylor. Especially when this Big 12 school is not his best chance for a title.

Miami: With Jack McClinton gone the offense opens up a bit, but this addition to the list also seems out of place. Miami would certainly offer the minutes and logo notoriety that a player like Wall would demand, but if were going to play in the ACC then it would seem more likely that he join a power that boosts him to the top. I mean, it’s like choosing Cleveland over New York. (Wait a sec…)

The Throw-Ins

Florida: Question, as a fan, would you rather have back-to-back championships and then miss the NCAA tournament for two years, or two titles in 5 seasons with 3 straight #1 seeds, 4 30+ win seasons, and never missing the tournament once? Sure Billy Donovan might make a great sell, but Florida is still rebuilding, and with Tim Tebow back in town, Wall is most definitely not the #1 BMOC. The uncertainty behind Nick Calathes return would also be a factor.

Memphis: Analysts are talking about Tulsa winning the C-USA, Evans could return and want major minutes, Taggart could not return and the team could be even more depleted than it already is, and then there’s the little thing about Coach Calipari leaving and taking his recruits with him. At this point, there is no reason why Wall would choose Memphis over Kentucky, let alone any other school. Sorry Tigers, it was a nice run, and try not to take this snub too personally. It’s probably the last time you’ll be considered for a while.

The Powerhouses

Kansas: Kansas offers the best chance for a title, but we’re not totally sure that this is what John Wall is coming to college to get. It’s certainly not a degree, but more than a championship, Wall would require minutes and exposure. And while Kansas would certainly provide the latter, with Sherron Collins returning for his senior year, would Bill Self really be able to give Wall starters’ minutes? This is Collins’ team and he’s coming back to try to win a title. Along with Xavier Henry choosing Kansas, this team is already loaded. Do they even have an available scholarship for Wall? And where does Lance Stephenson fit in?

Duke: They are definitely weak at the PG spot between Nolan Smith and Elliot Williams, but now they’ll be weak at the SF spot with Henderson most likely departing. With Henderson, Wall seemed like the perfect fit to go with the other PF/C recruits Coach K is bringing to Durham. But, without Henderson is Wall really the answer? Elliot Williams might be able to slide into the SG role, but he definitely won’t be able to fill Henderson’s shoes to the point that Duke becomes a national title contender. Though the Clifton camp is speaking highly of Coach K and Wall’s interactions with him, does Wall really want to take the same path that Seth Curry has taken? Also, is Coach K willing to knowingly take the one-and-done plunge again? Luol Deng got him to his last Final Four…so yes.

Kentucky: When Calipari was at Memphis, it seemed that this was going to be Wall’s destination. Now that he’s at Kentucky and in need of a PG, it seems reasonable for Wall to make the jump as well. He is frequently compared to Derek Rose, and Calipari took Rose to the final game, which provided the jumping off point to a #1 overall pick in the draft and an NBA ROY trophy. Meeks and Patterson are question marks, but with the incoming recruiting class that includes two of the Top 15 rated prospects, Wall should have options and the Kentucky pedigree offers one of the biggest stages in college sports, plus the added fact that he could be a savior to the winningest program in the NCAAs. It would not be a surprise to anyone for UK to pick up Wall’s one-year contract.

But, while all these choices offer different selling points for Wall, and he will definitely end up at one of them, there is no obvious choice that offers everything he needs…oh wait there is.

The Wild Card

UNC: One of the most storied programs in all of college basketball is coming off a national title fueled mostly by its departing junior/senior classes. Instead of rebuilding though, this school is reloading. They have potentially two Top 10 picks in next year’s draft in Ed Davis and John Henson, the #1 recruiting class in the country and a major vacancy at point guard. The ideal situation for this team would be an elite point guard joining for one year to ease the transition between Lawson and 2011’s top rated recruit. Larry Drew is a serviceable backup and Wall would not be asked to overextend himself, but he will have all the minutes he needs and most definitely a spot on the starting lineup. He would have a chance to help the team go back-to-back and win a title in his one college year, he can play at the school he claims he dreamed of playing at when he was a kid, the school the greatest player in the history of basketball played at, and for a coach, who everyone loves (aside from one certain AAU scumbag) and whose coaching style is a perfect way to bring out all of Wall’s talents.

There is no logical reason why Wall would play anywhere but UNC. But, this is the NCAAs and the seedy world of college basketball recruiting, where logic is the last thing on anyone’s minds.

For Wall’s sake, I hope he makes a choice that his heart is in. He’s going to be a star and I wish him the best wherever he ends up playing…as long as it’s not Duke.